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Weekly Summary (27/09/2021)

Prices went fell last week and buying side disadvantageous

Last week the gold price fluctuated very greatly. The domestic real estate regulation policy affected the market's judgment on the Asian economy situation. The Asian stock market fell and was causing gold to rise to a high of 1787. Passed the hot spot the price fell again. Subsequently, due to the impact of the Fed's interest rate resolution the gold price continued to fall with the minimum of 1739, then remained at a low point and ending at 1748 in end of the week.

The Federal Reserve issued an interest rate resolution early Thursday morning and was maintaining the interest rate range at 0% - 0.25%, and said it may start to reduce bond purchase as soon as November, But it also implicitly expresses that based on the current economic situation, it is possible that the interest rate increase will be earlier than expected.

The Fed and the market basically predict that the pace of interest rate hike can only be started next year and believe that it will rise to 1% in the next two years. At present, inflation is still not the Fed's primary problem. At the press conference after the interest rate resolution, Powell said that under the condition of strong employment growth in September, he would reduce debt purchase in November.

There are many important economic data this week which has a great impact on the market. Transactions need to be planned in advance. In terms of data, there are durable goods orders in August, China PMI in September, EUR-zone CPI data, US manufacturing PMI data, Japan and German elections, speeches by many decision-makers of the Federal Reserve, etc.

In view of the current inflation situation, there is a great possibility that important data will rise but it remains to be seen whether they can meet market expectations. The impact on the market price is also estimated and preparations need to be made in advance. Overall, the current market situation is that institutions reduce their holdings, the data is not conducive to the rise of gold and the market bearish sentiment is high.

Technical analysis:

The overall price of this week began to decline from the medium term. The 5 / 10 day moving average crossed, the 5-day moving average tilted downward and the 1-hour K line continued to fall which was indicating that the market entered a decline. Then the 5-day moving average rose again and the price was briefly corrected but there was no obvious trend, the market closed at 1748 at the end of the week.

MACD kinetic energy implies that even if another high point is formed it will still be below the zero axis, indicating a downward trend. The fast and slow lines went down at the same time, and did not cross the zero axis again in the callback, indicating that the price is in a low range of downturn.
In short term the price may still rise to the 1750-1760 range but it more likely to be affected by fundamental data and events this week. In the middle and long term of the week it is mainly bearish.

Important data and events in this week:

Monday: 20:30  Initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in August (%)

Tuesday: 20:30  Initial value of wholesale inventory rate in August (%)

Tuesday: 00:00  New York Fed chairman Williams delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook

Tuesday: 21:00  Evans, chairman of FOMC voting Committee and Chicago Federal Reserve, delivered a speech in 2021.

Wednesday: 02:30 US Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech at the annual meeting of the National Association of business economics.

Thursday: 20:30 the number of Americans who renewed their claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended September 18 (10000)

Friday: 01:50 St. Louis Fed chairman Brad delivered an online speech.

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