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Weekly Summary (06/09/2021)

Last week price kept stable with non-farm data was driving a sharp rise in the end

Pot gold rose continuously in last week. The price rose from the volatile price of 1804 to the highest of 1835. It was slightly corrected at the weekend and finally closed in 1828. The non-farm data in August was much lower than expected, the stability of the Fed's quantitative policy was guaranteed, the US dollar index decreased which showing strong uncertainty so that spot gold gained greater momentum and continued to rise.

The United States added 235000 no-farm workers in August that is the smallest increase since this year and less than the expected 700000+. The Federal Reserve believes that the easing policy will continue and may increase efforts to stimulate the weak job market.

A new round virus spread has continued make people's concerns and leading to consumption weaken and then weak the job market, the decline in the number of recruitment and the reduction of employment opportunities.

The entertainment, catering and accommodation industry recorded zero employment growth again in August and was indicating that the impact of the new round of epidemic on consumption and employment activities higher than expected. When the new wave of infection peak caused by delta virus has not passed,even without further restrictive measures and pressure, people's spontaneous reduction of going out will continue to have an impact on the level of economic activity.

Based on the above, the gold price is still relatively optimistic in this week. Generally, consider  the inertia of the Fed's policy, the sluggish job market, the continuous moderate policy and the uncertain outlook of the US dollar. In addition, the impact of the epidemic is also a major factor. Under the background of the instability of the US dollar and the risk avoidance of the epidemic, the sustained and moderate rise of gold will be a high probability event.

The rising space this week mainly focuses on the position of 1850, 1800 downstream and the overall range of 1800-1850 / 60 fluctuates upward which can maintain the overall bullish mood.

Technical analysis:

Last week the price remained stable in the early stage and basically floating at 1810. The moving average is entangled and there was no obvious trend. Affected by the non-agricultural data on Friday, the price was greatly driven. MACD kinetic energy signal is stable and large, with the 5-day moving average upward and an obvious upward trend.

At present, the moving average still keeps rising and the price is in a slight correct position. It expected that the current 1820 basic position will be maintained on Monday and the fluctuate will be carried out around this range. It is necessary to observe the relative position of the 5-day moving average and the change of MACD kinetic energy.

Important information this week:

Thursday 20:30  :Jobless claims in the United States as of September 4 (10000)

Friday      20:30  :US August PPI annual rate (%)

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