Data led to sharp fluctuations in gold prices last week
Last week the overall price of spot gold moved up and the highest position broke through the key integer 1800 to 1800.79. The price fell continuously on Friday and was reaching 1765 at the lowest, finally closed at 1767. The overall price fluctuated greatly throughout the week. The decline was mainly due to the early boost in gold prices hit by US retail sales in September.
The US CPI data on Wednesday evening was positive and for gold and silver but the market operated in the opposite direction and the price was greatly boosted, breaking through the 1800 integer figure. The main reason was that the US bond yield callback made the funds return to the gold market to fight inflation which pushed the price to the opposite direction.
Friday's positive U.S. retail data frustrated gold bulls for a short time and the price went all the way down from the 1800 range to the 1760 range. The main reason is that the performance of U.S. retail data drives market sentiment towards the expectation of a better U.S. economy, some funds are withdrawn and prices are down. This round of decline also basically offset the rise on Wednesday.
Views on the market in this week, market sentiment is more divided. Some believe that the price has returned to the medium-term low. After the impact of economic data and it should return to the short-term rise range again, with the target pointing to the 1780-1800 range. The other part believes that the overall expectation of a better U.S. economy has been formed and the price will be further pressured and lower, possibly entering the 1750 range.
This week's situation still needs to pay attention to fundamental information. Next week's economic data will usher in China's third quarter GDP economic data, Britain's September CPI data, European and American countries' September PMI data. In terms of market news, quale’s, vice chairman of financial supervision of the Federal Reserve, participated in the discussion of financial stability, and the RBA announced the minutes of monetary policy meeting, The beige book on the economic situation released by the Federal Reserve deserves special attention.
Technical analysis:
On the 30 minute chart it can be seen that the upward momentum of prices in the early part of last week was strong. On Wednesday affected by CPI data the prices rose sharply, breaking through 1800. The brin belt has a large exposure and the price has a fundamental reversal for the first time in the short term. After that the range went narrowed and the market entered the mood of hesitation and wait-and-see, got the narrowest range at the opening of the market on Friday, and then opened the decline mode. However, observing the brin band range, the price did not lead the expansion of exposure. In the downward trend there has a correction and rise but the overall situation is still under pressure. By the end of the market at 1766, the closing of the brin belt has narrowed and the price has no momentum to promote for the time being.
From the kinetic energy index MACD, there were two turning changes in the price this week. The first time also came from the rise of the price. The kinetic energy largely crossed the zero axis and then entered the shock. It was generally in the high range, and the kinetic energy range entered below the zero axis. After Friday, the function extends downward under the zero axis, and the speed line also enters a far position below the zero axis, and the market is in a low range.
According to the current index guidance, the price is generally at a medium-term low and there is room for upward. It needs to be comprehensively judged in combination with the fundamentals and price trend of this week.
Important data of this week:
Monday: 10:00 China's third quarter GDP annual rate - single quarter (%)
Thursday: 20:00 US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 16 (10000)
