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Weekly Summary (08/11/2021)


The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and gold entered the rising range

Gold prices showed a unilateral upward trend last week, the highest price was reaching 1818 and closed at the highest price at the end of last week. The price trend is relatively clear with a slight correction due to the impact of US non-farm data on Friday and with the lowest price of 1758.

Although generally believed in the market that inflation has reached a certain level, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve still keep interest rates unchanged. US non-farm employment in October was better than the previous value and expectation which may slow down the pace of the Fed's withdrawal from QE and tightening monetary policy. The dollar index was closed under pressure on Friday.

With the summer COVID-19's obstacles subsided, the number of non-farm jobs increased by 531 thousand last month which exceeded 450 thousand of the forecast. The data of August and September were revised upward and was showing that an additional 235000 jobs were added in these two months.

The performance of some employment indicators released first in October was also quite strong. The ADP national employment report in October showed strong growth in private employment, supporting the expectation of accelerated employment growth. In October, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell below 300000 and remained below this level for four consecutive weeks.

The United States has encountered difficulties in supply chain and logistics transportation. Supply chain chaos may reduce the good atmosphere of the upcoming year-end holiday and may inhibit consumer sentiment for a longer time. Republicans have repeatedly accused the Biden administration of failing to govern, which is pushing up inflation and raising the cost of living of Americans.

Before the Fed's interest rate decision, the Bank of England issued a policy of keeping interest rates unchanged. It shows that major European and American countries are still optimistic about the current inflation situation and believe that the economic operation is still under control. This attitude obviously has an impact on the monetary policies of European and American countries. Raising interest rates and suspending QE is likely to wait until next year.

Next week, the gold price probability will continue to be adjusted horizontally above 1800. If there is no sudden impact on the price, it will be maintained above 1800 for a period of time. Buy and sell trading in the 1830-1800 range can be mainly considered.

Technical analysis:

The price changes greatly in the past week. The brin belt track has continued to expand. On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger belt channel expanded greatly twice and the prices were corrected downward and opened upward respectively. At the end of last week, the upper track line rose unilaterally and the price rose to a high level.

MACD basically shows an upward trend. The fast and slow line crossed the zero axis and continued to rise in the middle of last week. The performance of the kinetic energy line is more obvious, the rise kinetic energy is sufficient and the form at the end of the week indicates the rising form.

Important information this week:

Tuesday: 21:30 US October PPI annual rate (%)

Wednesday: 21:30 US October CPI annual rate not seasonally adjusted (%)

Friday: 23:00 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

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