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Weekly Summary (20/12/2021)

Inflation and epidemic push up gold prices

Last week the price rebounded after bottoming out which was showing an upward trend, rising by $15, up to 1815 and closing at 1789. 

Last week, the market's concern about rising inflation further intensified. The spot gold to resist inflation were greatly supported and the price tended to rise. In its resolution, the Federal Reserve recognized the long-term nature of inflation and believed that it was possible to raise interest rates three times next year, which also promoted the accelerated rise of gold prices. In addition, the severe Omicron epidemic situation and other factors also promoted the rise of gold prices.

This past Sunday, the United States broke through two hurdles: more than 50 million new crown confirmed cases and more than 800000 deaths. This anti epidemic performance is not only at the bottom of the major developed countries but even far worse than that of many developing countries.

After Thanksgiving, the epidemic in the United States has worsened again in the past two weeks. It is reported that on the 12th local time, there were more than 50 million newly confirmed cases and more than 800000 deaths in the United States. Among them more than 450000 people died of illness this year. This means that although the U.S. population accounts for only 4% of the global population, it accounts for 14% of the total number of new crown deaths and 19% of the total number of infections.

Over the past 11 months, the US new crown mortality rate has been significantly higher than that of many countries. On average, nearly 100 thousand of every 100 thousand people died of COVID-19 infection, 1.3 times the number of EU countries, 4 times of Canada and 12 times of Japan, even higher than that of Mexico.



The latest data show that the prospect of the U.S. economy is more optimistic than expected. Analysts now expect that the U.S. economy will have stronger growth in the last three months of this year. New data show that economic growth in the third quarter was stronger than originally announced, and the pace of recovery accelerated in October and November. Economists from Morgan Stanley to the Atlanta fed and other institutions have raised their GDP expectations for the fourth quarter. If everything develops as expected, the economy is expected to grow by about 5.5% this year, the best performance since 1984.

This week will usher in Christmas in the United States. The market trading may be relatively light, and the price may fluctuate sideways without major changes. However, we should still pay attention to the sudden market impact brought by factors such as the epidemic situation. The overall market price fluctuated in the range of 1780-1820.

Technical analysis:

Last week, the price rose sharply and K line rose more smoothly, the trend was more obvious, the brin belt channel was more smooth and price moved above middle line, and upward trend was more obvious. On MACD, the kinetic energy line and speed line are always above zero axis, and price callback downward in the late trading stage but MACD shows that there is still a large force in kinetic energy. Monday's opening is likely to continue the upward trend.

Important data of this week:

21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ended December 18 (10000)

21:30 initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in November (%)


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