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Weekly Summary (28/12/2021)

Gold prices went higher and need watch momentum lack in future market

Spot gold continued to rise last week and closed at US $1829. The main influencing factors are the continued decline of US dollar index and demand for risk avoidance caused by the epidemic of Omicron variant virus and market anxiety. In addition, the international situation also has a lot of news. Russia continues to assemble troops near Crimea and Ukraine. The United States has repeatedly warned Moscow that if Russia launches a new attack on Ukraine, the United States will impose devastating sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that if new sanctions were imposed on Russia, Russian-US relations might break down. US and Russian officials will attend security talks on January 10.

In terms of the epidemic situation, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that Omicron spread rapidly and the daily increase in the United States also rose to an all-time high. People still need to avoid travel and other unnecessary trips. Russia has surpassed Brazil to become the second country with the largest number of deaths due to the new crown in the world. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, Russia is making the most active preparations for epidemic prevention and control next year. South Korea, Israel and other countries have also strictly stipulated measures to maintain social distance and strengthen the R & D and injection of new crown vaccine.

The epidemic of the epidemic has a deep impact on the financial market, but because the virus has been prevalent for a long time, the market has produced a certain digestion and prediction function, and has a relatively limited impact on price fluctuation. Although the gold price is rising at present, we should also pay attention to the price decline that may start next week.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased last week, and the number of renewal of unemployment benefits also fell to the lowest level during the new crown pandemic, indicating that the rapidly spreading Omicron variant has not yet had an impact on employment, which helps to alleviate the concern that the surge in the number of new crown infections will inhibit the economic recovery. Despite the latest wave of COVID-19 infection, labor demand remains strong. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell further and continued to be lower than the low before the outbreak of the epidemic, indicating that the labor market will continue to recover as the high demand for workers continues into the next year.

In addition, the Fed's interest rate hike information also needs attention. In view of the continued high inflation, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates in early March. It can be considered that the market has entered the interest rate increase cycle since 2022, which will have a far-reaching impact on the gold market.

This week mainly focuses on the US dollar index, relevant information of Omicron, and important downward correction signs after the rise of gold price. The basic market trend is the correction under shock balance. There is less important information on fundamentals this week. It is necessary to pay attention to the non-farm data on Friday evening. It is expected that the non-farm data will be more optimistic this time.

Technical analysis:

Last week, the price continued to rise from 1780 to 1820. The price trend basically remained in the upper layer of the brin belt. The trend was more balanced and the K-line was relatively narrow. At present, the exposure opening is large and still in the upper trend. The kinetic energy line on MACD has changed from high to stable. At present, although it is still above the zero axis, the kinetic energy is slightly insufficient. The speed line is at a high position above the zero axis, cross entangled and the price enters a stalemate to compete for the market.

Important information in this week: 

Friday: 21:30 after the seasonally adjusted change of us non-farm payrolls in December (10000)

Friday: 21:30 US December unemployment rate (%)

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