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Weekly Summary (14/3/2022)

The power of Ukraine's situation control the market gradually weakened

Last week the gold prices from a strong upward path turned to the overall downward, prices from the highest 2070 range towards the lowest 1957 position, closed at 1985. Last week dominated the market sentiment of the main source of information from the war situation in Ukraine - sanctions against Russia gradually turned to the Fed rate hike and other market factors, the market focus and momentum to turn and was pushing prices down sharply, due to The Russian side published information that has made more meaningful progress in the negotiations with Ukraine, predicting that gold prices are likely to produce an impact on the market in this Monday or even push the jump to a lower opening.

Gold prices are currently facing twofold pressure, the first from the de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine. After the warring parties and the forces behind more than ten days of fighting after signs of de-escalation, the latest round of meaningful consensus achieved has not yet been made public, if indeed the truce has a decisive impact, will be in the short term to make gold lose the support of safe-haven sentiment and then fall sharply. Second, from the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, March 17 at two o'clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate resolution, it is widely believed that this will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, will have a medium-term decisive impact on the direction of gold, with the dollar up, gold will further tend to move downward.

At the same time, the global financial spillover effect generated by the war in Ukraine, the global stock market shock down and main commodities rose sharply, even if gold's safe-haven utility gradually declined but by the huge thrust of the commodity rise, the price may produce a strong support point within a certain range. In addition, the Omicron epidemic remains relatively serious and with new cases arising in major cities around the world, it is not yet known whether it will cause a new round of global epidemic which may also cause a new point of growth in risk aversion.

As the situation in Ukraine is the main market-dominating factor in the near future, its overall situation tends to ease will cause greater changes in prices, the overall price this week to consider the shock down market and a possible minimum of 1900 new low position. Holders of long positions can consider taking profits to close their positions.

Technical analysis: Ichimoku chart

Last week the price opened a downward trend, from the 2000 range into the 1960 range, the price fell into the Ichimoku chart last week below the cloud and the position of the relevant curve is also in the lower position. The price has not pierced the cloud layer at the close of trading and remains in a low hovering direction.

Monday's opening can focus on observing whether prices pierce the cloud layer upward, the short term can consider doing more on the low.

This week's key information.

Tuesday: 20:30 U.S. February PPI annual rate (%)

Wednesday: 20:30 U.S. February monthly retail sales rate (%)

Thursday: 02:00 U.S. March federal funds rate target ceiling (%)




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