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Weekly Summary (28/3/2022)

The USD entered the interest rate hike cycle,Ukraine situation decreased impact on the market

Spot gold fell continuously on Monday and currently in the 1936 price range. Recently, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly released interest rate hike signals which injected strong market sentiment into the continued interest rate hike this year, pushed the USD index to a certain extent and put pressure on gold. The Ukrainian war has fallen into a stalemate but its influence on the market still exists, gold still plays a safe haven effect and likely to rebound upward and return to the 1950 range again in the near future. This week will usher in the non-farm employment data in March. It expected that the U.S. job market will continue to improve and suppress the gold price to a certain extent.

The Russian Ukrainian war fell into a stalemate. The two sides had fierce exchanges of fire in Kiev and other places but both sides failed to make strategic progress. It can be predicted that the risk aversion caused by the war will gradually subside, but it may still have an impact on the financial market to a certain extent, especially because the lack of supply side and supply chain caused by the war promoted inflation. Global food products include wheat Soybeans and natural gas and other products in bulk commodities rose sharply. At the same time, the sanctions against Russia also raised the price of oil and gas related products which resulting in certain impact on economic circulation. In addition, a Saudi Aramco oil storage equipment was attacked by drones on Friday, pushing up oil prices in the short term.

The United States and Europe signed an agreement last week to increase the amount of oil and gas sent by the United States to Europe every year, so as to reduce Europe's energy dependence on Russian which also an exploratory attempt on a new energy path. Major European powers such as Germany and France all hope to reduce their energy demand and demand for Russia at a special time. Because of the uncertainty during the war, European countries worried about the energy problem since last month very much welcome this move of the United States.

Although prices fell on Monday, the main factors leading the market are still the situation in Ukraine and the US dollar interest rate hike. At present, the US dollar is in a new round of interest rate hike and the signal of the Federal Reserve is also very positive, which fully shows the certainty of raising interest rates again this year. Although the influence of the situation in Ukraine has been limited, there may be sudden news at any time, which will affect the gold price in the short term. The main goal of this week is still to shock the rising market, focusing on the 1950-80 range.

Technical analysis:

From last week to Monday, the price showed an inverted V-shaped market of upward shock downward, mainly due to the impact of the situation in Ukraine on risk aversion. In the middle and early stage of last week, the price was on the upper track of the brin belt channel, the price reached the highest position of 1966 and remained volatile. It began to enter the middle and lower track range last Friday and fell after opening on Monday. At present, it has fallen below the lower track line of the brin belt, and the price is in the 1935 range, Overall, it remained in a downward trend.

Important information of this week:

Tuesday  time no determined. US President Biden presided special summit with ASEAN leaders

Wednesday: 20:30 final value of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States (%)

Friday:20:30 Non-farm employment data

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