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Weekly Summary (20/9/2022)

Last Tuesday (September 13), the United States released inflation data, of which the non-seasonally adjusted core inflation data of the United States was 6.3%, ending the trend of falling back and forth for four consecutive months. The market stopped rebounding and turned down after the data, as rising core inflation means that the Federal Reserve has the opportunity to increase the rate hike to 0.75% to 1% at the next meeting, and the possibility of increasing the rate hike has caused the dollar index to rise. Going higher again, the price of gold fell about 23 $ to close at 1701.56 that day. Afterward, the gold price fell below the 1700 mark the next day, which led to new funds entering the market and short selling again on Thursday. For information on opening positions, please refer to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Figure 2). The price of gold fell by more than 60$. On Friday, some short-selling profit-taking closed positions temporarily stabilized the decline.

The market opened on Monday (September 19) and the gold price found support at 1660 after falling about $18 in the Asian-European session. It has not gone out of the way for the time being. Whether to hunt for the bottom or chase this week depends on the results of the US interest rate meeting this Thursday.

After the U.S. interest rate meeting this week, the Fed will give future expectations and indicators for the economy. The market trend will depend on the response of major institutions to the strength of future Fed rate hikes and economic expectations. Gold prices have fallen to mid-2020. Position, after falling below the 1683 support last week, the price of gold has the opportunity to try the 1642 support level again.

Technical analysis:

The price of gold is currently at the midline of the descending channel since March, mainly showing a range-bound downward trend. The current price is at 1673. The 5-day average and 10-day average on the daily chart tried to reverse the downtrend last Monday and Tuesday but failed. Generally, the failure of the reversal is a precursor to the acceleration of the trend. The current average on the daily chart Line indicators indicates a downtrend. The next support line is at 1642 and 1573, while resistance is at 1683 and 1697.

Important information this week:

Wednesday 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change

Thursday: 02:00 Fed rate decision

Thursday: 02:30 FOMC press conference

Thursday: 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims

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