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Weekly Summary (25/10/2022)

Last week, Prime Minister Truss of the United Kingdom fell from power, and then the Fed spread the remarks of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes. The US dollar index showed signs of falling, and gold rebounded after bottoming out again. A lot of important data was released this week, such as the EU interest rate meeting, US GDP and so on.

Last Monday (October 17), gold opened lower by the US dollar index and temporarily held the 1642 rebound, but 1642 is not a solid support level, because the price of gold once fell below the support level. On the same day, the gold price rebounded from the opening price on the 14th to 1668.42, an increase of about 25$, but gold has continued to fall for several months, the US dollar index and US bond yields are still high, the US dollar index has fallen short-term but the underlying logic of continuous interest rate hikes remains unchanged. The rebound in gold prices could not be sustained, and finally closed at 1650.18, up only $6.4. Because of the above reasons, when the US dollar index rose slightly on Wednesday, the price of gold immediately fell below 1642 and went straight to 1621, closing at 1629.

The trend on Thursday, Friday, or two days last week was dominated by news. First, when the former British Prime Minister announced his resignation at about 8 pm in Hong Kong on Thursday, the British pound took the opportunity to raise prices to attract buyers. It once rose by $13, but the event did not affect the US economy. The rise was purely an illusion to attract retail investors to buy. Therefore, the US dollar rose again shortly after the US market opened, and other markets fell back to their original positions. On Friday, Fed officials hinted that future interest rate hikes will be more cautious, and some officials proposed slowing down the rate hikes in December. The news led to a drop in the yields of the US dollar and US bonds, and the price of gold soared from the day's low of 1617.3 $39.3 to 1656.6.

As can be seen from the figure, the market's attention is now mainly focused on the Fed's indicators of future interest rate hikes. For example, the resignation of the British Prime Minister failed to bring about the transaction volume. Only when the Fed officials released the "remote talk" that the rate hike may be slowed down in the December Turnover surge.

Technical analysis:

The gold price failed to break through the 1666 resistance last Monday. The average line in the daily chart gave a sell signal. The current gold price is in the 1621-1666 range. If the gold price successfully stabilizes above 1666, there may be a chance to try 1683 and the descending channel in the short term. the top of. However, if the price of gold falls back to 1642 again, it will likely fall back to 1621 again or fall below 1621 by the news, MACD is still negative, and no buying indicator is given.

Important information this week:

Tuesday: 22:00 US Consumer Confidence Index

Thursday: 19:45 ECB interest rate decision

Thursday: 20:30 US GDP q/q

Thursday: 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: 20:30 Core PCE Price Index

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